Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the first individual Donald Trump announces as his pick to be United States Attorney General. An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for United States Attorney General will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Attorney General. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Lee Zeldin | 13% YES | 87% NO |
| Todd Blanche | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Jeff Clark | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Ken Paxton | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Matt Gaetz | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Ron DeSantis | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Jeanine Pirro | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Mike Lee | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Donald Trump will need to announce his selection for Attorney General during his second term, a position that typically requires Senate confirmation and carries significant influence over federal law enforcement priorities. The current 13% implied probability on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty about which candidate Trump will ultimately select from a field that has included various former prosecutors, loyalists, and political figures with differing backgrounds and judicial philosophies.
Historical precedent suggests Trump's cabinet announcements often occur in clusters during transition periods, with Attorney General selections typically announced relatively early given the role's prominence. Trump's first term saw Jeff Sessions appointed before inauguration, followed by William Barr after Sessions's departure. The current probability weighting may reflect the crowded field of potential candidates and the absence of clear public signals about Trump's preference, compared to other cabinet positions where frontrunners have emerged more distinctly in recent weeks.
Traders should monitor formal announcements from Trump's team, statements during press conferences, and reporting from sources close to the transition process. The settlement window extends to 30 June 2026, providing considerable time for the announcement to occur, though most cabinet selections typically happen within the first months following an election. Any public endorsements, meeting schedules, or vetting announcements involving specific candidates could shift market pricing significantly, as would developments affecting the viability of leading contenders.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$678K in lifetime turnover and $155K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for trump cabinet contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $4K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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