Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Marko Mesarovic and Amit Vales in the ITF Men Lakewood, originally scheduled for May 28, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marko Mesarovic' if Marko Mesarovic advances against Amit Vales. This market will resolve to 'Amit Vales' if Amit Vales advances against Marko Mesarovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Lakewood: Marko Mesarovic vs Amit Vales | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Marko Mesarovic and Amit Vales are scheduled to compete in the ITF Men's tournament at Lakewood on 28 May 2026. The match sits at 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, indicating either minimal liquidity or a technical pricing anomaly rather than genuine market conviction. ITF Futures events at this tier typically attract modest trading volume, and early-stage markets often display extreme probabilities until meaningful order flow establishes a price discovery mechanism.
Historical ITF Futures matches show that 0% probabilities in low-liquidity markets frequently reflect absent bids rather than informed assessment. Mesarovic, a Serbian player, and Vales, an Israeli competitor, are both active on the ITF circuit; their head-to-head record and recent form would normally anchor expectations, but sparse public match data at this level makes comparative analysis difficult. Similar Lakewood-tier events have resolved with winners determined by surface preference, recent tournament results, and injury status—factors that typically shift pricing as the event date approaches.
Traders should monitor ITF tournament draws and official confirmations as May approaches, particularly any withdrawal announcements or schedule changes that might trigger the 7-day delay clause. Recent ITF scheduling updates are typically published on the ITF website and through player social media accounts. The settlement window closes 4 June 2026, providing a narrow window for resolution; any match postponement beyond 4 June would trigger a 50-50 split. Current zero liquidity suggests the market awaits either player news or increased participation to establish genuine price discovery.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Lakewood: Marko Mesarovic vs Amit Vales" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$949 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: