Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1520 | 73% YES | 27% NO |
| 1530 | 35% YES | 65% NO |
| 1540 | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| 1550 | 9% YES | 92% NO |
The question hinges on whether any large language model will achieve a specified performance threshold on the Chatbot Arena's mathematics benchmark by the end of June 2026. The Arena's leaderboard tracks model performance through head-to-head comparisons, with scores reflecting relative capability across mathematical reasoning tasks. Current order book depth on Polymarket shows the 73% YES probability reflects substantial confidence in this outcome materialising within the settlement window.
Historical progression on the Chatbot Arena mathematics leaderboard reveals consistent improvement cycles. GPT-4 and Claude models have demonstrated measurable score increases over twelve-month periods, typically driven by model releases and fine-tuning iterations. The current implied probability of 73% suggests traders expect at least one model to cross the specified threshold, treating this as a moderately likely but not certain event given the eighteen-month timeframe remaining.
Key catalysts include announced model releases from Anthropic, OpenAI and other frontier labs, which typically occur on irregular schedules but have clustered around spring and autumn periods historically. Benchmark methodology changes at Arena.AI could affect score comparability, though the leaderboard has maintained consistent evaluation protocols. The dependency on a third-party resolution source introduces minor operational risk, though Arena.AI's leaderboard has proven stable as a reference point for the AI research community. Traders should monitor research announcements and model release timelines from major labs for signals regarding mathematical capability improvements.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $15 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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