Trade: Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $199K
- Total Volume
- $250
- 24h Volume
- $250
- Open Interest
- $3K
Market outcomes
| 24% YES | 77% NO | |
| OpenAI | 24% YES | 77% NO |
| Z.ai | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| DeepSeek | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Mistral | 16% YES | 85% NO |
| Microsoft | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| Amazon | 14% YES | 87% NO |
| ByteDance | 17% YES | 84% NO |
Market context
The Chatbot Arena Leaderboard ranks language models by Elo rating derived from head-to-head comparisons conducted by users. The market resolves to whichever company owns the highest-ranked model on 31 December 2026, as measured by the leaderboard's rank column with style control disabled. Current order book pricing implies a 38% probability that a specific company (likely OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta based on historical dominance) holds the top position at year-end 2026.
Historical leaderboard dynamics show significant volatility in rankings over quarterly periods. OpenAI's GPT-4 variants have held top positions since late 2023, though Anthropic's Claude 3 family and Google's Gemini have periodically challenged that standing. The 38% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty about which organisation will achieve the strongest benchmark performance eighteen months forward, rather than consensus around a clear favourite. Leaderboard composition shifts as new models launch and existing ones receive updates, making sustained leadership difficult to predict.
Key catalysts include scheduled model releases from major developers—Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and Meta all maintain active development pipelines. Leaderboard methodology changes could alter how models are ranked, though the market specifies the current Elo-based approach. Funding announcements and compute infrastructure developments may signal capability trajectories. Recent competitive releases suggest the race remains genuinely contested, with no single organisation demonstrating insurmountable technical advantage. The settlement date allows approximately two major release cycles for each major developer, creating genuine optionality around which company's latest iteration performs strongest.
Wikipedia Context
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White Company
The White Company was a European free company active during the 14th century. Initially known as the Great Company of English and Germans, it was later commonly referred to as the English Company. The company arrived in Italy in 1361, led first by the German mercenary Albert Sterz and later by the Englishman John Hawkwood, under whom it gained its greatest n
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The White CompanyThe White Company is a historical adventure novel by British writer Arthur Conan Doyle, set during the Hundred Years' War. The story is set in England, France and Spain, in the years 1366 and 1367, against the background of the campaign of Edward the Black Prince, to restore Peter of Castile to the throne of the Kingdom of Castile. The climax of the book occ
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Which (command)
In computing, which is a command for various operating systems used to identify the location of executables. The command is available in Unix and Unix-like systems, the AROS shell, for FreeDOS and for Microsoft Windows. The functionality of the which command is similar to some implementations of the type command. POSIX specifies a command named command that
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The White Company (retailer)The White Company (U.K.) Limited, trading as the White Company, is a retailer of bedroom, home, clothing, and fragrance goods, whose 32,000-square-foot (3,000-square-metre) head office is located at Television Centre, London.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Which company has best AI model end of 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$250 in lifetime turnover and $199K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $250 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Which company has best AI model end of 2026?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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