Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the next team Brandon Aiyuk officially joins by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If Brandon Aiyuk does not officially join a new team by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. If Brandon Aiyuk joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to “Other”. If Brandon Aiyuk is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. An official signing announcement prior to the market’s close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Baltimore Ravens | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| Carolina Panthers | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| Dallas Cowboys | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| Miami Dolphins | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| New England Patriots | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| New York Giants | 25% YES | 76% NO |
Brandon Aiyuk's contract status with the San Francisco 49ers remains unresolved heading into 2025, with the wide receiver and franchise at an impasse over a long-term extension. The market assesses the probability that Aiyuk will have joined a different NFL team by the end of August 2026, with Polymarket's order book currently pricing this scenario at 25% implied probability. This timeframe encompasses the remainder of the 2025 offseason negotiations, the 2025 season itself, and the subsequent offseason window through August 2026.
Historical precedent suggests that star receivers in contract disputes typically resolve within one to two seasons. Comparable cases include DeAndre Hopkins (traded mid-season in 2020), Stefon Diggs (traded in 2020 after prolonged negotiations), and more recently, Brandon Aiyuk's teammate Deebo Samuel, who signed an extension with San Francisco in 2022 after holdout threats. The 49ers have demonstrated willingness to trade dissatisfied players but also to retain core offensive weapons through negotiated deals. The 25% probability reflects market expectations that Aiyuk either reaches an agreement with San Francisco or remains under contract through 2026 without joining another team.
Key catalysts include any contract extension announcement during the 2025 offseason, Aiyuk's performance during the 2025 season, and trade deadline activity in October 2025. The 49ers' salary cap positioning and playoff performance will influence their negotiating leverage. Recent reporting from NFL insiders will signal movement towards resolution, whilst any public statements from either party regarding trade feasibility would shift market pricing substantially.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Where will Brandon Aiyuk play in 2026-27?" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$10K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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