Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Saudi Professional League game between NEOM SC and Al Shabab Saudi Club, scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 12:50 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| NEOM SC | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Al Shabab Saudi Club | 14% YES | 86% NO |
NEOM SC will host Al Shabab Saudi Club in a Saudi Professional League fixture on 11 May 2026, with settlement determined by the halftime scoreline after 45 minutes plus stoppage time. The 34% implied probability for a NEOM SC halftime win reflects current order book positioning on Polymarket, where traders are pricing in a roughly two-to-one likelihood of either a draw or an Al Shabab halftime lead.
Halftime markets in Saudi Professional League matches typically show home-side bias, though the magnitude varies considerably based on squad composition and recent form. NEOM SC, as a newly established club with significant investment backing, has demonstrated variable early-season performance patterns. Historical data from comparable SPL halftime markets suggests that 34% for the home side indicates traders are factoring in either defensive vulnerabilities or Al Shabab's attacking capability in the opening period. Comparable fixtures from the 2024–25 season showed halftime home-win probabilities ranging from 28% to 48% depending on relative league position and squad depth.
Traders should monitor team news releases and official SPL announcements regarding squad availability through the settlement window closing on 11 May at 16:50 UTC. Fixture congestion in the SPL's final weeks can affect starting lineups and tactical setup. Recent performance metrics—particularly each side's first-half goal-scoring record and defensive solidity—will inform whether the current probability adequately reflects underlying match dynamics. Weather conditions at kickoff and any late tactical adjustments announced pre-match may shift the order book substantially in the hours before play begins.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.slstat.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "NEOM SC vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $12K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.slstat.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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