Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Scottish Premiership game, scheduled for Sunday, May 10, 2026 between Celtic FC and Rangers FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Celtic FC | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (Celtic FC vs. Rangers FC) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Rangers FC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Celtic and Rangers will meet in a Scottish Premiership fixture on Sunday, 10 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 45% implied probability for a Celtic victory, suggesting the market views this as a competitive encounter with Rangers given meaningful chances. This probability has emerged from live trading activity and represents the marginal price at which buyers and sellers are currently willing to transact.
The Old Firm rivalry carries historical weight in Scottish football, with Celtic holding a slight edge in recent seasons. Over the past five years, Celtic have won roughly 55–60% of competitive fixtures against Rangers, whilst draws account for approximately 15–20% of meetings. The current 45% probability sits below Celtic's historical win rate, indicating either that market participants anticipate Rangers' form to be stronger than their long-term record suggests, or that the fixture's proximity to the end of the season introduces additional uncertainty around squad rotation and injury status.
Traders should monitor team news and league standings as May approaches. Fixture congestion, European competition results, and managerial decisions on player rest will shape both sides' preparation. The Scottish Premiership title race and European qualification spots may influence tactical approach and squad selection. Weather conditions at the venue and any late injuries to key players could shift the probability materially in the final weeks before settlement. Confirmation of the exact kick-off time and venue may also prompt modest repricing.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://spfl.co.uk/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Celtic FC vs. Rangers FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$126K in lifetime turnover and $255K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $126K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://spfl.co.uk/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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