Trade: San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas - Exact Score
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLS game between San Jose Earthquakes and FC Dallas, scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 10:30 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas match originally scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 10:30 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $25K
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-2 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-2 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
Market context
San Jose Earthquakes will face FC Dallas on 16 May 2026 at 10:30 PM ET in an MLS regular season fixture. The market is pricing the probability of an exact final score at 5%, reflecting the current order book on Polymarket. This low probability indicates traders are distributing their confidence across multiple possible scorelines rather than concentrating on any single outcome, which is typical for exact-score markets where dozens of feasible results exist.
Exact-score markets in MLS fixtures historically settle on outcomes in the 1–1, 1–0, and 2–1 range most frequently, though no single scoreline typically commands more than 8–12% implied probability in well-formed order books. The 5% figure here suggests the market has not yet coalesced around any dominant outcome, or that the listed outcome in question sits outside the modal cluster of expected results. Comparable MLS matchups between mid-table sides show similar probability distributions, with exact scores becoming increasingly unlikely as goal totals rise above three.
Traders should monitor team news regarding injuries, suspensions, and lineup confirmations in the week preceding the match. Recent form, home-field advantage (the fixture location affects scoring patterns), and any weather alerts closer to kickoff could shift the probability distribution. Polymarket's order book will tighten as match day approaches and more information becomes available, potentially moving the current 5% figure if new information emerges about either squad's tactical setup or personnel availability.
Wikipedia Context
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2002 San Jose Earthquakes season
The 2002 San Jose Earthquakes season was the seventh season of the team's existence.
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San Jose Earthquakes (1974–1988)The San Jose Earthquakes were a professional soccer club that played from 1974 to 1988. The team began as an expansion franchise in the North American Soccer League (NASL), and was originally set to play in San Francisco; but slow season ticket sales led to a late switch to San Jose's Spartan Stadium. The switch to sports-starved San Jose was an immediate hi
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San Jose Earthquakes II
San Jose Earthquakes II is an American professional soccer team that is located in San Jose, California. It is the reserve team of San Jose Earthquakes and participates in MLS Next Pro.
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San Jose EarthquakesThe San Jose Earthquakes are an American professional soccer club based in San Jose, California. The Earthquakes compete in Major League Soccer (MLS) as a member of the Western Conference. Originally known as the San Jose Clash, the franchise began play in 1996 as one of the charter members of the league. The Earthquakes took part in the first game in MLS hi
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $25K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas - Exact Score"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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