Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for Saturday, May 9, 2026 between Seattle Sounders FC and San Diego FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Seattle Sounders FC | 62% YES | 39% NO |
| Draw (Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC) | 22% YES | 79% NO |
| San Diego FC | 19% YES | 82% NO |
Seattle Sounders FC will face San Diego FC in an MLS regular-season match on Saturday, 9 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 62% implied probability for a Sounders victory, suggesting the market views Seattle as a clear favourite in this fixture.
Sounders have historically dominated the Pacific Division and maintain one of MLS's stronger home records, whilst San Diego FC, having joined the league in 2023, remains in an earlier developmental phase. The 62% probability aligns with typical market pricing for established sides facing newer franchises at home, though the exact margin depends on both teams' form trajectory through spring 2026. Comparable matchups between established and expansion-era MLS clubs have generally settled near this range when the established side plays at home.
Traders should monitor team news through early May, particularly injury reports for Seattle's key attacking players and San Diego's defensive availability. Weather conditions at Lumen Field can influence match outcomes; Seattle's wet spring weather occasionally favours defensive play. MLS scheduling announcements and any late fixture changes should be tracked, as should both clubs' performance in the weeks immediately preceding the match. Recent form divergence—whether one side enters on a winning streak or drought—typically shifts probabilities materially in the final trading days before settlement on 10 May.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$68K in lifetime turnover and $734K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $67K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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