Trade: Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC - More Markets
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the MLS game, scheduled for May 16 at 7:30 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $5K
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Orlando City SC (-1.5) | 30% YES | 71% NO |
| Atlanta United FC (-1.5) | 16% YES | 85% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 22% YES | 79% NO |
| Both Teams to Score | 62% YES | 39% NO |
| Orlando City SC (-2.5) | 17% YES | 84% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 62% YES | 39% NO |
| Atlanta United FC (-2.5) | 17% YES | 84% NO |
Market context
Orlando City SC will face Atlanta United FC in an MLS regular-season match on 16 May 2026 at 7:30 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 32% implied probability for the "More Markets" outcome, suggesting traders are pricing in a relatively low likelihood of this specific settlement condition being met. The probability has been formed through active trading on the platform's order book, where counterparties have established positions reflecting their collective assessment of the event's likelihood.
Historical MLS matchups between these two Southeast Division rivals provide context for assessing probability calibration. Orlando City and Atlanta United have met regularly in league play, with results varying based on home-field advantage, squad depth, and seasonal form. The current 32% probability sits below the baseline expectations for either team in a neutral scenario, indicating the market is pricing in specific constraints or conditions embedded in the settlement criteria that make the outcome less probable than a standard match outcome would suggest.
Traders should monitor squad news and injury reports in the weeks preceding the fixture, particularly regarding key players for both sides. Recent MLS scheduling patterns and the teams' form heading into mid-May will influence how the probability evolves. Any roster changes, managerial decisions, or fixture congestion affecting either club's preparation could shift the order book materially. The settlement window closes on 16 May at 23:30 UTC, giving traders approximately five months to adjust positions as new information emerges.
Wikipedia Context
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Orlando City SCOrlando City Soccer Club is an American professional soccer club based in Orlando, Florida. The club competes in Major League Soccer (MLS) as a member of the Eastern Conference. Owned by Zygi, Leonard, and Mark Wilf, it is the sister club of the National Women's Soccer League's Orlando Pride and MLS Next Pro's Orlando City B. The team plays its home games in
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Orlando City BOrlando City B is an American soccer club that began play in 2016 and currently plays in MLS Next Pro. Owned by Orlando City SC and based at the Orlando City training facility in Kissimmee, the club plays its home games at Osceola County Stadium.
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Orlando City U-23
Orlando City U-23 was an American soccer team based in Lake Mary, Florida, United States. Founded in 1998, the team played in the Premier Development League (PDL), the fourth tier of the American Soccer Pyramid, in the Southeast Division of the Southern Conference. The team was part of the Orlando City SC youth development system, and played the majority of
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Orlando City HallOrlando City Hall is the headquarters of the City of Orlando government. The downtown city hall is a 9 floor, postmodern building constructed by Lincoln Property Company and completed in 1992. The building is located in downtown Orlando at the CNL Center City Commons building complex, on the corner of South Orange Avenue and South Street.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC - More Markets"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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