Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Athletics and Chicago Cubs, scheduled for June 4 at 8:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics win the game. This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| NRFI | 50% YES | 51% NO |
The Athletics travel to face the Chicago Cubs on 4 June at 8:05PM ET in a regular season MLB matchup. Settlement occurs on 12 June, with the market currently pricing Athletics victory at 43% implied probability on Polymarket's order book. This probability reflects the current balance of bets between those backing Oakland and those backing Chicago, with the spread suggesting Cubs favouritism at present odds.
Historical matchups between these franchises provide limited predictive value for individual games, though the Cubs hold a slight edge in recent head-to-head records. More relevant context comes from 2024 season performance: the Cubs have generally outperformed the Athletics in win-loss records and run differential this season, which typically correlates with single-game win probabilities. Comparative strength metrics—including ERA, batting average, and team OPS—favour Chicago, though baseball's inherent variance means single-game outcomes remain substantially uncertain.
Key variables for traders include starting pitcher announcements, which typically arrive 24–48 hours before game time and can materially shift implied probabilities. Injury reports on either roster, weather conditions at Wrigley Field, and recent form streaks merit monitoring. The Cubs' home-field advantage at Wrigley is a documented factor in win probability models. Any postponement would extend the settlement window beyond the current date, potentially altering market dynamics if either team's roster situation changes materially during the delay.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2 in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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