Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Copa Libertadores game, scheduled for Tuesday, May 19, 2026 between Independiente del Valle and Club Libertad.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Independiente del Valle | 70% YES | 30% NO |
| Draw (Independiente del Valle vs. Club Libertad) | 21% YES | 79% NO |
| Club Libertad | 12% YES | 89% NO |
Independiente del Valle and Club Libertad will meet in the Copa Libertadores on Tuesday, 19 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a YES outcome (an Independiente del Valle victory or draw, depending on market settlement terms) at 71%, reflecting a modest but material edge for the Ecuadorian side. This probability has formed through standard order-book mechanics as traders have positioned ahead of the fixture.
Independiente del Valle holds a stronger recent record in continental competition than Libertad, having reached the Copa Libertadores final in 2016 and maintaining consistent qualification to the group stages. Club Libertad, based in Paraguay, has qualified regularly but has not advanced as far in recent tournaments. Historical head-to-head records between Ecuadorian and Paraguayan clubs in Copa Libertadores play show marginal advantages to the former, though sample sizes remain modest. The 71% probability sits within the range typical for home-field advantage in South American club football, where venue effects are pronounced.
Key variables for traders include team news on injuries or suspensions, which typically emerge in the 48 hours before kick-off, and any late changes to squad rosters. Weather conditions in Ecuador—altitude and humidity—may favour the home side if Libertad's preparation has been limited. Fixture congestion in domestic leagues preceding the match could affect player availability or fatigue levels. The settlement window closes at 02:00 UTC on 20 May, allowing for resolution shortly after the final whistle.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://conmebollibertadores.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Independiente del Valle vs. Club Libertad" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$326 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://conmebollibertadores.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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