Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for Wednesday, June 17, 2026 between Uzbekistan and Colombia.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Uzbekistan | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| Draw (Uzbekistan vs. Colombia) | 19% YES | 81% NO |
| Colombia | 71% YES | 30% NO |
Uzbekistan will face Colombia in a FIFA World Cup group-stage match on 17 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices an Uzbekistan victory at 11 per cent implied probability, reflecting the substantial gap in recent competitive form between the two nations. This probability is being formed by traders pricing in Colombia's established World Cup pedigree against Uzbekistan's less consistent record at the tournament level.
Colombia has qualified for five World Cups since 1990 and reached the quarter-finals in 2014, whilst Uzbekistan has appeared only twice (1994, 2018) with limited knockout progression. Historical matchups between Central Asian and South American sides at World Cups show a pronounced disparity in outcomes, though group-stage football introduces volatility. Colombia's recent Copa América performances and CONMEBOL qualification record provide a stronger baseline than Uzbekistan's AFC Asian Cup trajectory, which explains the current 11 per cent floor for an upset.
Traders should monitor team news through June, particularly injury updates to Colombia's key attacking players and Uzbekistan's defensive setup. Fixture congestion in the days preceding the match and any late squad changes could shift the probability. Additionally, the composition of their shared group will matter—if either team enters the match with different knockout implications, tactical approaches may shift. Current squad depth reports and training camp updates closer to the tournament will provide concrete signals for position adjustment.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Uzbekistan vs. Colombia" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$539 in lifetime turnover and $16K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $64 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 18 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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