Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for Tuesday, June 16, 2026 between Iraq and Norway.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Draw (Iraq vs. Norway) | 14% YES | 87% NO |
| Iraq | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| Norway | 77% YES | 23% NO |
Iraq and Norway will meet in a FIFA World Cup group-stage fixture on 16 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices Iraq's victory at 15 per cent implied probability, reflecting substantial backing for Norway despite both nations' modest recent tournament records. This valuation emerges from live trading activity where the spread between bid and ask prices settles around that consensus level.
Norway has not qualified for a World Cup since 1998, whilst Iraq's sole appearance came in 1986. In direct historical terms, the sides have never met competitively. Norway's UEFA ranking sits considerably higher than Iraq's AFC standing, and the Scandinavian nation typically fields players from established European leagues. Iraq, conversely, draws primarily from domestic competition and regional clubs. Recent World Cup qualifying campaigns show Norway advancing through a relatively stronger confederation pathway, though neither team has demonstrated consistent tournament success in the modern era.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates as the tournament approaches, particularly regarding Norway's key attacking players and Iraq's defensive stability. Fixture scheduling—whether either team plays a preceding match that could affect fatigue or motivation—will influence tactical approaches. Currency fluctuations in betting markets across European and Middle Eastern platforms may signal shifting expectations. Qualification pathway strength and recent friendly results in the months preceding June 2026 will provide concrete data points for reassessing the current 15 per cent valuation.
Iraqis in Norway make up approximately 33,924 people. They are mostly refugees from the Iran–Iraq War, the Saddam regime and in particular the Iraq War.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Iraq vs. Norway" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $69 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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