Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Saturday, May 16, 2026 between Republic of Ireland and Grenada.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Republic of Ireland | 87% YES | 13% NO |
| Draw (Republic of Ireland vs. Grenada) | 13% YES | 87% NO |
| Grenada | 5% YES | 95% NO |
The Republic of Ireland will face Grenada in a FIFA International Friendly on Saturday, 16 May 2026. This fixture sits within the broader international calendar following the 2026 World Cup qualification cycle, offering both nations preparation time ahead of potential summer tournaments or autumn competitive fixtures. Grenada, ranked considerably lower in the FIFA standings, presents a significant quality gap against an Ireland side with established European competitive experience.
The current 69% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects Ireland's substantial advantage in squad depth, playing standard, and historical head-to-head record. Ireland has faced Caribbean nations in friendlies previously, typically securing comfortable victories. The probability formation suggests traders are pricing in a high likelihood of an Irish win, though the exact margin remains uncertain—friendly matches carry inherent volatility despite talent differentials. The settlement window closes at 16:00 UTC on match day, allowing final information to influence positions through kickoff.
Traders should monitor team news releases regarding squad selection and injury status in the weeks preceding the fixture. Friendly matches occasionally see experimental lineups or rotations, which can affect performance predictability. Confirmation of the fixture's final scheduling and any last-minute venue changes would constitute material information. Recent international friendly results between established European sides and Caribbean opponents have generally confirmed expected outcomes, though occasional upsets in low-stakes friendlies warrant acknowledgement of tail risk in the current probability assessment.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Republic of Ireland vs. Grenada" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $619 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: