Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Saturday, June 6, 2026 between England and New Zealand.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| England | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| Draw (England vs. New Zealand) | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| New Zealand | 47% YES | 53% NO |
England will face New Zealand in a FIFA International Friendly on Saturday, 6 June 2026. The match forms part of the international calendar between the two nations' football associations and will settle based on the final result. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 47% implied probability for an England victory, suggesting the market prices this as a competitive fixture with meaningful uncertainty around the outcome.
New Zealand has historically occupied a lower tier in international football rankings, with England typically favoured in direct matchups. However, friendly matches carry structural unpredictability absent from competitive tournaments—squad rotation, experimental formations, and reduced intensity can compress expected performance gaps. England's recent friendly record shows variable results depending on preparation cycles and personnel availability. The 47% probability for England reflects this baseline expectation whilst acknowledging New Zealand's capacity to compete, particularly if England fields a significantly rotated squad ahead of other commitments.
Traders should monitor team news releases and squad announcements in the weeks preceding the match, as injuries or withdrawal of key players could shift the probability materially. The timing relative to domestic season conclusions and any concurrent international competitions will influence both sides' preparation and selection priorities. Recent form in qualifying or other fixtures closer to June 2026 will provide updated information on squad condition and tactical direction. Fixture congestion for English players in their domestic leagues may also affect availability and readiness.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "England vs. New Zealand" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $968 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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