Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for June 1 at 9:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Canada (-1.5) | 42% YES | 58% NO |
| Uzbekistan (-1.5) | 42% YES | 59% NO |
| Canada (-2.5) | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| Uzbekistan (-2.5) | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 62% YES | 39% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
Canada and Uzbekistan will meet in a FIFA International Friendly on 1 June at 21:00 ET, with settlement hinging on whether additional markets for this fixture materialise on Polymarket. The current order book is pricing a 42% probability of "YES," reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether the platform will expand its offering beyond standard match outcome markets. The settlement window closes at 01:00 UTC on 2 June, giving traders less than four hours after kick-off to assess whether new markets have been created.
International friendlies typically generate modest trading volume on prediction markets compared to competitive tournaments, and the decision to list additional markets depends on platform discretion and anticipated liquidity. Canada's recent form has been inconsistent—they finished fourth in the 2024 Copa América and have struggled in World Cup qualifying—whilst Uzbekistan, ranked 89th globally, competes primarily in Asian confederation competitions. Neither team's recent trajectory suggests exceptional commercial appeal that would automatically trigger expanded market coverage.
Traders should monitor Polymarket's market creation activity in the hours preceding and immediately following the match. Historical precedent shows the platform typically expands offerings for high-profile fixtures or when early trading volumes indicate demand, but friendly matches between these nations lack the draw of major tournament play. Any announcement from either federation regarding squad composition or injury updates could influence perceived match interest, though such developments rarely correlate with Polymarket's market expansion decisions. The settlement ultimately depends on platform operators' assessment of post-match trading potential rather than on-pitch performance.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Canada vs. Uzbekistan - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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