Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Euroleague basketball game, scheduled for May 7 at 2:00PM ET: If the Hapoel Tel Aviv win, the market will resolve to "Hapoel Tel Aviv". If the Real Madrid win, the market will resolve to "Real Madrid". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Real Madrid | 27% YES | 74% NO |
Hapoel Tel Aviv will face Real Madrid in a Euroleague basketball match on 7 May 2026. The game is scheduled for 14:00 ET, with settlement occurring at 18:00 ET the same day. The current crowd-implied probability of 41% for a Hapoel victory reflects the substantial gap in recent competitive standing between the two franchises.
Real Madrid has dominated European basketball over the past decade, winning multiple Euroleague titles and consistently fielding rosters with international star power. Hapoel Tel Aviv, whilst a historically significant Israeli club, has not won the Euroleague since 2004 and typically operates with a smaller budget than Madrid's elite-tier spending. Head-to-head records and recent season performance favour Madrid substantially, though Euroleague basketball permits upset outcomes given the single-game format and variance inherent in knockout or playoff contexts.
Traders should monitor team injury reports and roster confirmations in the weeks preceding the fixture, as absences of key players could shift competitive balance materially. The timing of the match—potentially late in a Euroleague season or playoff stage—will determine whether either team is managing load or prioritising the contest. Fixture scheduling announcements and any official postponement notices from Euroleague authorities should be tracked closely, as the settlement terms specify that postponements keep the market open until completion, whilst cancellation without rescheduling triggers a 50-50 resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.euroleaguebasketball.net/euroleague/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Real Madrid" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$101K in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $98K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 27%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.euroleaguebasketball.net/euroleague/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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