Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming La Liga 2 game between Granada CF and Burgos CF, scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 12:30 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Granada CF | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| Draw | 60% YES | 41% NO |
| Burgos CF | 50% YES | 51% NO |
Granada CF will host Burgos CF in a La Liga 2 fixture on 16 May 2026, with the halftime result market settling on outcomes during the opening 45 minutes plus stoppage time. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 24% implied probability for a Granada halftime victory, suggesting the market perceives Burgos as competitive or Granada as unlikely to establish early dominance in this second-tier Spanish league encounter.
Historical patterns in La Liga 2 halftime markets show that home sides typically command 45–55% implied probability at kickoff, depending on relative league position and recent form. A 24% probability for the home team indicates either that Burgos enters as a strong travelling side with recent results supporting that assessment, or that Granada's current trajectory—whether through injury, fixture congestion, or league standing—has depressed expectations for early control. Comparable mid-season or end-of-season La Liga 2 matches between mid-table sides have often seen halftime favourites priced between 35–50%, making this reading notably cautious for the home side.
Traders should monitor team news releases and official lineups released typically 60–90 minutes before kickoff, as absences of key attacking or defensive personnel can shift halftime probabilities materially. Recent La Liga 2 standings and both sides' halftime scoring records in their last five matches will inform whether the current 24% reflects genuine underlying conditions or represents mispricing relative to seasonal trends. The settlement window closes at 16:30 UTC on match day, allowing only the final pre-match hour for order book adjustments once confirmed team sheets are public.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.laliga.com/en-GB/laliga-hypermotion. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Granada CF vs. Burgos CF - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.laliga.com/en-GB/laliga-hypermotion. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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