Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Premier League game between Tottenham Hotspur FC and Leeds United FC, scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Tottenham Hotspur FC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Leeds United FC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Tottenham Hotspur will host Leeds United on 11 May 2026 at 3:00 PM ET in a Premier League fixture. The halftime result market is pricing a 41% probability for a Tottenham lead at the interval, with the remaining probability distributed across draws and Leeds advantage. Settlement occurs at the conclusion of the first 45 minutes plus any stoppage time awarded by the referee.
Halftime markets typically reflect team tendencies in early-game intensity and tactical setup rather than full-match form. Tottenham's historical record shows they have secured halftime leads in approximately 48% of home fixtures over recent seasons, whilst Leeds' away record suggests they trail at the interval in roughly 55% of matches. The current 41% probability sits below Tottenham's typical home halftime conversion rate, suggesting the market is pricing in either Leeds' defensive resilience or Tottenham's cautious opening approach this season. Comparable fixtures between these sides show variable first-half patterns, with recent encounters producing mixed halftime outcomes.
Key variables affecting the market include team news announcements prior to kick-off, particularly regarding injury status for key attacking players. Tottenham's squad depth and Leeds' pressing intensity in the opening stages will influence early dominance. Weather conditions and pitch state at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium may favour either side's playing style. The Polymarket order book is currently reflecting modest confidence in a Tottenham halftime advantage, with liquidity concentrated around the 40–42% range, indicating traders are pricing meaningful uncertainty into the first-half outcome.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.premierleague.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $765 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.premierleague.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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