Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Egypt Egyptian Premier League game, scheduled for May 12 at 11:00 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| El Gouna SC (-1.5) | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| Kahrabaa Ismailia FC (-1.5) | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| El Gouna SC (-2.5) | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| Kahrabaa Ismailia FC (-2.5) | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 65% YES | 35% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 18% YES | 83% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
El Gouna SC will face Kahrabaa Ismailia FC in the Egyptian Premier League on 12 May 2026, with kickoff scheduled for 11:00 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 20% implied probability for the "More Markets" outcome, suggesting traders are pricing in a relatively low likelihood of this particular market condition materialising. The settlement window closes at 15:00 UTC on the scheduled match date, allowing roughly four hours post-kickoff for final resolution.
Egyptian Premier League fixtures between lower-tier clubs typically generate modest trading volume on international prediction markets, which partly explains the compressed probability distribution. Historical precedent shows that markets for Egyptian domestic football often remain illiquid until 48–72 hours before kickoff, at which point team news and injury confirmations drive repricing. El Gouna and Kahrabaa Ismailia occupy mid-table positions in recent seasons, making their head-to-head outcomes difficult to forecast with high confidence; comparable fixtures between similarly ranked sides have settled across a wide range of outcomes.
Traders should monitor official Egyptian Premier League fixture confirmations and any last-minute postponements, which occur occasionally due to administrative or security considerations. Recent squad announcements from either club—particularly regarding key player availability—will likely shift the order book significantly in the final 24 hours before match time. The relatively low current probability suggests the market is either pricing in a specific outcome or reflecting genuine uncertainty; tracking volume changes and bid-ask spreads will indicate whether conviction is building among sophisticated participants.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.efa.com.eg/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "El Gouna SC vs. Kahrabaa Ismailia FC - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$204 in lifetime turnover and $27K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $150 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.efa.com.eg/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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