Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming DFB-Pokal game between FC Bayern München and VfB Stuttgart, scheduled for May 23, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| FC Bayern München | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Draw | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| VfB Stuttgart | 49% YES | 52% NO |
FC Bayern München will host VfB Stuttgart in the DFB-Pokal final on 23 May 2026 at 14:00 ET. The market prices the probability of Bayern leading at halftime at 33%, with the remaining probability distributed across draws and Stuttgart leads. This represents a meaningful discount to Bayern's historical dominance in cup competitions, where they have won the DFB-Pokal fourteen times since 1966.
Bayern's halftime performance record in knockout matches shows they typically establish control early; across recent DFB-Pokal campaigns, they have led at the interval in approximately 65–70% of their matches. Stuttgart, conversely, has reached the final as a relative underdog and tends to adopt a compact defensive shape in opening periods against elite opposition. The current 33% probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about Bayern's ability to break down Stuttgart's expected low-block setup within the first 45 minutes, rather than scepticism about Bayern's overall quality.
Traders should monitor team news through to kick-off, particularly regarding Stuttgart's defensive availability and Bayern's attacking personnel fitness. Recent Bundesliga form heading into the final will signal tactical intent; Stuttgart's defensive record in the league's closing matches and Bayern's conversion efficiency in the final third will shape how aggressively each side commits in the opening phase. Weather conditions on match day—temperature and pitch state—can materially affect early-game tempo and pressing intensity, influencing the likelihood of an early breakthrough.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.dfb.de/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $826 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.dfb.de/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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