Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between Pakistan and Zimbabwe scheduled for 2026-05-12 in T20 Series Pakistan vs Zimbabwe, Women. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Pakistan will be considered correct if Pakistan is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. The outcome corresponding to Zimbabwe will be considered correct if Zimbabwe is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| PAK | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| ZWE | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Draw | 49% YES | 51% NO |
Pakistan's women's cricket team faces Zimbabwe in a T20 match scheduled for 12 May 2026, with this market requiring Pakistan to win both the coin toss and the subsequent match for a YES resolution. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 49% implied probability, indicating near-even odds despite Pakistan's stronger historical standing in women's T20 cricket. The dual requirement—toss success combined with match victory—naturally depresses the probability relative to a match-outcome-only market, as both events must align favourably.
Historical T20 data suggests Pakistan's women hold a significant advantage in head-to-head records against Zimbabwe, with Pakistan winning the majority of encounters over the past five years. However, toss outcomes introduce genuine randomness; coin flips carry approximately 50% probability regardless of team strength. The compounding effect explains why even a stronger team's probability for winning both events typically sits below their standalone match-win probability. Zimbabwe has demonstrated competitive capability in recent T20 tournaments, particularly in lower-order batting performances, which contextualises the current 49% reading as reflecting genuine uncertainty rather than overvaluation of either side.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates from both boards, typically released 48 hours before match day. Venue conditions at the scheduled ground will influence toss strategy and match dynamics; pitch reports from comparable recent domestic fixtures in the region provide useful calibration. Weather forecasts closer to 12 May may affect match-play probability, indirectly influencing the compounded outcome. The settlement window closes 19 May, allowing time for official confirmation via ESPNcricinfo following any potential rain interruptions or scheduling changes.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "T20 Series Pakistan vs Zimbabwe, Women: Pakistan vs Zimbabwe - Toss Match Double" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $231 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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