Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between Delhi Capitals and Royal Challengers Bengaluru scheduled for 2026-04-27 in Indian Premier League. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Delhi Capitals will be considered correct if Delhi Capitals is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. The outcome corresponding to Royal Challengers Bengaluru will be considered correct if Royal Challengers Bengaluru is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| DEL | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ROY | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Delhi Capitals and Royal Challengers Bengaluru will contest an IPL match on 27 April 2026, with this market requiring both a Delhi Capitals toss win and match victory for YES settlement. The combined probability of two independent events—winning a fair coin toss (50% baseline) and winning a cricket match—naturally produces lower odds than either outcome alone. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the absence of any active bids at present; this does not indicate market consensus but rather illiquidity in the early settlement window, with the book showing no counterparty willing to back this specific double outcome at any price.
Historical IPL data shows Delhi Capitals' win rate has fluctuated between 40–50% across seasons, whilst Royal Challengers Bengaluru typically performs in the 45–55% range depending on squad composition and form. The compounded probability of both toss and match victory for Delhi Capitals would theoretically sit around 20–25% if both events were truly independent, though toss outcomes carry negligible predictive value for match results in modern cricket. The 0% display reflects market structure rather than fundamental assessment.
Traders should monitor team announcements regarding player availability and form leading into late April 2026, as injury news or roster changes can shift match-win probabilities materially. Venue conditions at the scheduled ground and recent head-to-head records between these franchises will influence pre-match assessments. As the match date approaches and liquidity increases, the order book will establish a more meaningful price reflecting actual market opinion.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru - Toss Match Double" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$17K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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