Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Bundesliga game, scheduled for Saturday, May 9, 2026 between VfL Wolfsburg and FC Bayern München.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| VfL Wolfsburg | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw (VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| FC Bayern München | 100% YES | 0% NO |
VfL Wolfsburg will host FC Bayern München in a Bundesliga fixture on Saturday, 9 May 2026. The market is currently pricing a 14% probability of a Wolfsburg victory, as reflected in Polymarket's order book. This implies roughly 43% for a draw and 43% for a Bayern win, a distribution that mirrors Bayern's historical dominance in this matchup.
Bayern have won 19 of the last 25 meetings between these sides across all competitions, with Wolfsburg managing only three victories since 2015. The clubs' recent league form typically diverges sharply: Bayern have finished in the top two for eleven consecutive seasons, whilst Wolfsburg have oscillated between mid-table finishes and European qualification spots. A 14% implied probability for Wolfsburg aligns with their structural disadvantage in head-to-head records and squad depth, though the fixture's proximity to season-end (final day of the Bundesliga campaign) introduces variables around fixture congestion and motivation that traders should monitor.
Key developments to track include injury announcements from both camps in the week preceding the match, any title-race implications for Bayern, and whether Wolfsburg are competing for European places. Bundesliga fixture lists and team news typically emerge mid-week. The settlement window closes at 16:30 UTC on match day, allowing traders to adjust positions based on team sheets and pre-match conditions. Recent form swings and managerial changes at either club could shift the current probability meaningfully.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4.2M in lifetime turnover and $2.3M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $4.2M in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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