Trade: SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund - More Markets
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Bundesliga game, scheduled for May 16 at 9:30 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $144K
- Total Volume
- $610
- 24h Volume
- $25
- Open Interest
- $416
Market outcomes
| SV Werder Bremen (-1.5) | 13% YES | 87% NO |
| BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5) | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| SV Werder Bremen (-2.5) | 19% YES | 82% NO |
| BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-2.5) | 18% YES | 83% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 92% YES | 9% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 87% YES | 14% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 70% YES | 31% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 47% YES | 53% NO |
Market context
Werder Bremen will face Borussia Dortmund in a Bundesliga fixture on 16 May 2026, with settlement determined by the outcome of additional markets tied to this match. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 17% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting traders view the event as unlikely relative to competing outcomes. This probability emerges from real-time order flow as participants price their expectations into the spread between bid and ask.
Historical Bundesliga matchups between these clubs provide context for assessing current pricing. Dortmund has held a statistical advantage in recent seasons, though Bremen's home record at the Weserstadion has occasionally produced competitive results. The May timing places this fixture late in the season, when both clubs' final league positions and remaining objectives will be crystallised. Injuries, European competition fatigue, or relegation/title implications could materially shift team motivation and squad selection.
Traders should monitor squad announcements in the week preceding the match, particularly regarding key player availability for either side. Dortmund's involvement in European competitions earlier in the season may affect rotation patterns. Bremen's league position relative to the relegation zone will signal how aggressively they approach the fixture. Weather conditions at the Weserstadion and any late tactical shifts disclosed by either manager could shift the probability distribution. The settlement window closes at 13:30 UTC on match day, allowing only pre-match information to influence final pricing.
Wikipedia Context
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SV Werder Bremen IISV Werder Bremen II is the reserve team of SV Werder Bremen. It plays in Regionalliga Nord, the fourth level of the German football league system, and has qualified for the first round of the DFB-Pokal on nineteen occasions. It also has won the German amateur football championship three times, a joint record. Until 2005 the team played as SV Werder Bremen Am
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SV Werder Bremen in European football
Werder Bremen is a successful German football club based in the Free Hanseatic City of Bremen, northern Germany which participated in UEFA competitions on many occasions in the past. The club won the UEFA Cup Winners' Cup in 1992 and the UEFA Intertoto Cup in 1998. They were runners-up of the UEFA Cup in 2008–09 before it was rebranded as the UEFA Europa Lea
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SV Werder Bremen (women)
SV Werder Bremen Frauen is a German women's football club based in Bremen. In 2014–15 they were promoted to the Bundesliga, the top tier of German football.
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SV Werder Bremen
Sportverein Werder Bremen von 1899 e. V., commonly known as Werder Bremen, Werder or simply Bremen, is a German professional sports club based in Bremen. Founded on 4 February 1899, Werder are best known for their professional association football team, who compete in the Bundesliga, the first tier of the German football league system. Bremen share the recor
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$610 in lifetime turnover and $144K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $25 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund - More Markets"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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