Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Bundesliga game, scheduled for May 16 at 9:30 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5) | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5) | 16% YES | 85% NO |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5) | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5) | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 94% YES | 6% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 81% YES | 20% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 54% YES | 46% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 34% YES | 67% NO |
FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg are scheduled to meet on 16 May 2026 in a Bundesliga fixture, with kick-off at 9:30 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket is pricing the "More Markets" outcome at 17% implied probability, reflecting relatively low conviction among traders that additional betting markets will be offered for this particular match.
The 17% probability sits below typical thresholds for routine Bundesliga fixtures, which usually attract comprehensive market coverage on major platforms. St. Pauli's recent promotion to the top flight and Wolfsburg's mid-table status suggest neither club commands the fixture-level attention that Bayern Munich or Borussia Dortmund matches receive. Historical patterns show that market proliferation for Bundesliga games correlates with fixture prominence, European competition stakes, and platform liquidity appetite. Matches involving promoted sides or clubs outside the traditional "big six" often see narrower initial market offerings, particularly early in the season.
Traders should monitor Polymarket's operational calendar and any platform announcements regarding Bundesliga coverage expansion through mid-May. Fixture scheduling changes, injury updates to key players, or unexpected competitive implications (such as relegation or European qualification scenarios becoming live) can shift platform incentives to launch additional markets. The settlement window closes at 13:30 UTC on match day, leaving minimal time for late-stage market creation decisions. Current order book depth and any shifts in probability over the coming weeks will signal whether institutional or retail traders expect broader market availability for this encounter.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $39K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $653 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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