Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <40 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 40-50 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 50-60 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 60-70 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 70-80 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 80-90 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 90-100 | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| 100-110 | 17% YES | 83% NO |
This market settles on the Binance SOL/USDT spot price at the 12:00 ET noon candle close on 12 May 2026. The 0% implied probability reflects minimal order book activity rather than certainty that Solana will trade outside the resolution brackets. With settlement over 18 months away, the market has attracted limited liquidity, typical for distant crypto price-point contracts where traders prefer perpetual or quarterly futures for directional exposure.
Historical precedent suggests that Solana's volatility—ranging from sub-$20 to over $250 in recent cycles—makes pinpoint price predictions inherently difficult. The current zero probability likely indicates either no active bids across the available brackets or that market participants view the specificity of a single-minute candle at an exact timestamp as too narrow for reliable prediction. Similar distant Solana price markets on Polymarket have shown sparse participation until within 2–4 weeks of settlement, when spot price proximity becomes calculable.
Traders monitoring this contract should track Solana's network developments, including validator performance and ecosystem adoption metrics, alongside broader crypto market structure. Regulatory announcements affecting spot trading venues and stablecoin availability on Binance could influence liquidity conditions at settlement. Bitcoin's trajectory will likely dominate Solana's directional bias through May 2026, given historical correlation patterns. The settlement mechanism's reliance on a single 1-minute candle introduces execution risk; any Binance outage or unusual volatility spike at noon ET on that date could create basis between this market and actual spot prices traders observe elsewhere.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Solana price on May 12?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$10K in lifetime turnover and $103K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for solana contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $6K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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