Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 40 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 50 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 60 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 70 | 99% YES | 1% NO |
| 80 | 98% YES | 2% NO |
| 90 | 94% YES | 7% NO |
| 100 | 19% YES | 81% NO |
| 110 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
This market settles on Solana's price at noon Eastern Time on 15 May 2026, using the one-minute candle close on Binance's SOL/USDT pair. The 98% implied probability reflects confidence that SOL will trade above a specified threshold at that precise moment, with the exact price level determining the binary outcome. Current order book depth on Polymarket shows this probability is being sustained by substantial backing, indicating professional traders view the threshold as well below realistic price expectations for that date.
Historical precedent suggests that single-point-in-time price predictions for major cryptocurrencies typically command high probabilities when the target price lies several multiples below current spot rates. Solana's volatility profile—whilst material on intraday timescales—has historically shown mean reversion patterns that favour upside scenarios when settlement windows extend beyond twelve months. The two-year horizon to May 2026 substantially reduces the relevance of short-term technical levels.
Traders should monitor Solana's ecosystem developments, including validator network health, transaction throughput metrics, and institutional adoption announcements. The cryptocurrency market's correlation with macroeconomic sentiment and Federal Reserve policy remains a material dependency. Recent network upgrades and developer activity levels, tracked through on-chain metrics and ecosystem funding announcements, could influence longer-term price trajectories. Binance's operational status and SOL/USDT pair liquidity on the settlement date represent technical dependencies, though both have proven robust historically.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Solana above ___ on May 15?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $86K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for solana contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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