Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market tracks whether the Hyperliquid token price will be higher or equal at 3:35AM ET on 8 May 2026 compared to its level at 3:30AM ET that same morning, using Chainlink's HYPE/USD data feed as the settlement source. The five-minute window captures intraday volatility during early US trading hours, when cryptocurrency markets typically experience lower volume and wider spreads than peak trading periods.
Five-minute price windows in crypto markets historically exhibit mean-reversion characteristics, particularly during low-liquidity sessions. The current 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the difficulty in pricing directional movement across such compressed timeframes; the bid-ask spread on the YES side suggests traders view the probability of a price increase or flat movement as near-certain, though this may reflect order book depth constraints rather than fundamental conviction. Comparable ultra-short-duration markets on established exchanges show similar clustering at extreme probabilities when liquidity is thin.
Traders should monitor Hyperliquid's 24-hour trading volume and any protocol announcements scheduled near the settlement window, though major news releases are unlikely during the 3:30-3:35AM ET slot. The Chainlink data feed's update frequency and any potential latency between spot market prices and the oracle's reported HYPE/USD rate could influence settlement precision. Volatility clustering in the preceding hours and any significant moves in correlated assets like Bitcoin or Ethereum warrant attention, as these often drive altcoin price action during overnight sessions.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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