Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Dogecoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream DOGE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles based on whether Dogecoin's price on the Chainlink DOGE/USD data stream rises, falls, or remains flat during a five-minute window on 7 May 2026 between 7:45AM and 7:50AM ET. The 0% implied probability reflects the order book's current assessment that traders see negligible likelihood of upward price movement during this specific interval. Chainlink's data feed aggregates pricing from multiple exchanges, smoothing volatility that might appear on individual spot markets.
Five-minute price windows for volatile assets like Dogecoin historically exhibit near-random directional outcomes when viewed in isolation. Comparable micro-timeframe markets on Polymarket show that without identifiable catalysts scheduled precisely within the settlement window, crowd probabilities tend toward 50/50 or reflect only the most recent tick direction. The current 0% reading suggests either a recent downward price movement captured by the order book, or minimal liquidity and conviction among traders positioning for this particular interval.
Traders monitoring this market should note that Dogecoin's price action during early morning US hours typically reflects overnight Asian trading momentum and any cryptocurrency-related announcements from major exchanges or institutional players. No scheduled events—regulatory filings, earnings calls, or protocol updates—are known to concentrate around this specific five-minute window. Realised volatility in the preceding hours and any broader cryptocurrency market moves will be the primary drivers of whether the Chainlink feed records an uptick by 7:50AM ET.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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