Trade: Cap FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Cap's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Cap (https://x.com/capmoney_) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $48K
- Total Volume
- $75K
- 24h Volume
- $126
- Open Interest
- $24K
Market outcomes
| $500M | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| $800M | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| $50M | 86% YES | 14% NO |
| $100M | 69% YES | 31% NO |
| $150M | 33% YES | 68% NO |
| $250M | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| $2B | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| $4B | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Market context
Cap, a decentralised finance protocol, is preparing to launch a governance token. This market tests whether the token's fully diluted valuation will exceed a specified threshold within 24 hours of becoming publicly tradable. The FDV calculation multiplies total token supply by the token's price on the most liquid available exchange, with resolution occurring at 4:00 PM ET on the day following launch. The 12% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects significant scepticism about achieving the target valuation in such a compressed timeframe.
Token launches with ambitious FDV targets face historical headwinds. Most governance tokens experience post-launch volatility and price discovery that typically takes weeks rather than days to stabilise. Comparable recent launches—including protocols in the lending and derivatives spaces—have rarely sustained elevated valuations through the first 24-hour window, particularly when initial liquidity remains concentrated. The current probability pricing suggests the market is factoring in typical launch dynamics where initial hype gives way to profit-taking and liquidity constraints.
Traders should monitor Cap's pre-launch communications for details on initial token distribution, exchange listings, and liquidity provision arrangements. The specific FDV threshold in the market title will determine whether this resolves as a realistic target or an aspirational one. Announcements regarding institutional participation, exchange support, or significant protocol partnerships could shift the probability meaningfully. The settlement window extending to January 2028 allows ample time for the launch event itself, though the actual resolution hinges on a single snapshot 24 hours post-launch.
Wikipedia Context
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Cape VerdeCape Verde or Cabo Verde, officially the Republic of Cabo Verde, is an archipelagic country in the central Atlantic Ocean off the coast of West Africa. It consists of ten volcanic islands with a combined land area of about 4,033 square kilometres (1,557 sq mi). These islands lie between 600 and 850 kilometres west of Cap-Vert, the westernmost point of contin
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Cap d'AgdeCap d'Agde is a seaside resort on France's Mediterranean coast. It is located in the commune of Agde, in the Hérault department within the region of Occitanie. Cap d'Agde was planned by architect Jean Le Couteur as part of one of France's largest ever state-run holiday scheme. An increasing number of retirees reside there from 1980 onwards.
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Cape FinisterreCape Finisterre is a rock-bound peninsula on the west coast of Galicia, Spain.
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Battle of Cap-FrançaisThe Battle of Cap-Français was a naval engagement during the Seven Years' War fought between squadrons of the French and British navies outside the harbour of Cap-Français, Saint-Domingue on 21 October 1757.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Cap FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$75K in lifetime turnover and $48K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for pre market contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $126 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Cap FDV above ___ one day after launch?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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