Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Forsen breaks xQc's In-Game-Time of 14:27.035 in a Minecraft speedrun during a live stream by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve to “No” as soon as it becomes impossible for Forsen to complete a qualifying speedrun within this market’s timeframe. For the purpose of this market, “Minecraft speedrun” refers to a playthrough of Minecraft Java Edition version 1.16.1, using a random seed, starting from world creation and ending when the Ender Dragon is defeated. For the purpose of this market, “Stream” refers to a live video broadcast hosted by Forsen or where Forsen is present.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| June 30 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| May 31 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Forsen, a Swedish streamer with a substantial following in speedrunning communities, would need to complete a Minecraft 1.16.1 random-seed run faster than xQc's current record of 14 minutes 27 seconds during a live broadcast by 30 June 2026. The record stands as one of the more competitive benchmarks in Java Edition speedrunning, where top players regularly stream attempts to audiences numbering in the tens of thousands.
The current 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects confidence in Forsen's capability relative to the timeframe available. Forsen has demonstrated consistent engagement with speedrunning content and maintains an active streaming schedule, though his primary focus has historically centred on other titles. xQc's record was set in 2021 and has withstood challenges from the broader speedrunning community for several years, suggesting the threshold represents genuine difficulty rather than a soft target. Comparable records in Minecraft speedrunning have occasionally fallen within 18-month windows when top-tier players dedicate sustained effort, though such outcomes remain probabilistically uncommon.
Traders should monitor Forsen's announced streaming calendar and any public commitment to speedrunning campaigns, as these would signal material shifts in attempt frequency. The settlement window extends 18 months, providing reasonable scope for multiple attempts across varied random seeds. Technical factors—including patch compatibility and seed generation mechanics—remain constant, eliminating dependency on game updates that might alter difficulty parameters.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$28K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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