Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Clavicular receives a Kick ban by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Official announcements from Kick that Clavicular has been banned will qualify regardless of whether the enforcement of the ban has not yet gone into effect. For the purposes of this market, any form of account ban on Kick, including temporary, indefinite, or permanent suspensions, will count. Content or feature restrictions such as chat timeouts, demonetization, emote removals, loss of partner status, etc., will not count.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Clavicular receive a Kick ban by June 1, 2026? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Clavicular, a content creator on the Kick streaming platform, faces a market assessment of near-certain account suspension or ban by June 2026. The current orderbook on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, indicating traders are pricing in an exceptionally high likelihood of enforcement action within the next eighteen months. This extreme confidence suggests either recent developments have substantially shifted expectations, or the market is reflecting accumulated concerns about the creator's compliance with Kick's terms of service.
Historical precedent on Kick shows the platform has issued bans across various severity levels, from temporary suspensions to permanent account closures, typically following violations of content policy or community standards. Comparable cases involving high-profile streamers have generally seen enforcement occur within weeks to months of policy breaches becoming public, rather than extending across longer timeframes. The eighteen-month settlement window here is notably extended, which typically occurs when underlying catalysts remain uncertain or dependent on future conduct rather than imminent action.
Traders monitoring this market should track official Kick announcements regarding Clavicular's account status, any public statements from the creator addressing platform compliance, and broader policy shifts at Kick that might affect enforcement priorities. The resolution criteria specify that official announcements alone trigger settlement, regardless of implementation timing, meaning traders need only watch for formal communication rather than actual account inaccessibility. Given the 100% pricing, any material development suggesting lower ban probability would represent significant trading opportunity.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Clavicular receive a Kick ban by June 1, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$129K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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