Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on May 5, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on May 5, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on May 5? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Netflix's share price movement on 5 May 2026 will determine this market's outcome, comparing the closing price on that date against the prior trading day's close. The 0% implied probability currently reflected on Polymarket's order book suggests traders are pricing in an expectation of a down move or, more likely, that insufficient liquidity exists at the ask side to support a meaningful YES position. Single-day directional markets on large-cap equities typically see modest trading activity unless a specific catalyst is anticipated, and the current book depth indicates minimal conviction either direction at present price levels.
Historical precedent for single-day Netflix moves shows the stock regularly experiences 1–3% daily swings tied to content releases, subscriber data, or broader market sentiment shifts. Comparable single-day equity markets on Polymarket have resolved across the probability spectrum depending on proximity to earnings announcements or macroeconomic events. Without a scheduled Netflix event on or immediately before 5 May 2026, the market is pricing a baseline expectation of downward pressure, though this may reflect thin order book conditions rather than directional conviction.
Traders should monitor Netflix's content calendar and any scheduled announcements in late April or early May 2026, alongside broader equity market conditions and streaming sector sentiment. Macroeconomic data releases in the week preceding settlement—particularly inflation or employment figures—could influence technology sector positioning. The resolution hinges on intraday volatility and closing-price mechanics on a single date, making this a pure directional bet absent specific company-level catalysts.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NFLX%2FUSD. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on May 5?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for nflx contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NFLX%2FUSD. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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