Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the listed artists who perform live and in person at the Todo Mundo no Rio 2026 music festival, currently expected to take place in April or May. Appearances during which the listed artist does not perform will not count towards the resolution of this market. If this event is cancelled or otherwise delayed beyond July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be footage and information from Todo Mundo no Rio 2026 festival, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Britney Spears | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Justin Bieber | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Taylor Swift | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Beyoncé | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Rihanna | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Coldplay | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| U2 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Shakira | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Todo Mundo no Rio is a music festival scheduled for April or May 2026 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The event represents a significant addition to South America's festival calendar, though it remains in early promotional stages with limited public information about the full lineup. The market resolves based on live, in-person performances captured on footage or confirmed through credible reporting, with a deadline of 31 July 2026. Current order book activity shows 0% implied probability, reflecting the substantial uncertainty surrounding artist confirmations at this early stage.
Festival lineups typically crystallise between six and twelve months before the event date, with major announcements often clustered in the final quarter before performance. For emerging festivals, particularly those in developing markets, initial probability readings tend to remain depressed until organisers release official artist rosters. Comparable Brazilian festivals like Rock in Rio and Lollapalooza Brasil announce headliners progressively through autumn and winter, with secondary acts confirmed closer to the event. The 0% reading here reflects standard market behaviour for unconfirmed festival slots rather than any specific negative signal about the festival's viability.
Traders should monitor official Todo Mundo no Rio announcements through their website and social channels for lineup releases, which typically accelerate from late 2025 onwards. Festival confirmation of dates, venue details, and initial artist partnerships will serve as key catalysts for probability reassessment. Broader economic conditions in Brazil and international touring patterns will also influence which artists commit to the event, particularly given currency fluctuations and travel logistics for international acts.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will perform at Todo Mundo no Rio 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$25K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for music contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: