Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the listed artist with the second greatest number of monthly listeners according to Spotify on May 31, 2026, 12PM ET. The monthly listener count is listed on each artist's public Spotify profile. Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not count towards the featured artist's total. In the event of an exact tie for the number of monthly listeners, this market will resolve in favor of the listed artist whose name comes first in alphabetical order. If Spotify is down at the listed time on the listed date, this market will resolve based on the most recent available data.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bruno Mars | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| Kendrick Lamar | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Lady Gaga | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Coldplay | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Artist D | — | |
| Artist H | — | |
| Artist L | — | |
| Artist P | — | |
Determining which artist will hold the second-largest monthly listener count on Spotify as of 31 May 2026 requires tracking shifts in the platform's competitive hierarchy. Currently, The Weeknd, Taylor Swift, and Bad Bunny typically occupy the top positions, though these rankings fluctuate based on release cycles and streaming patterns. The #2 slot has historically rotated between established acts with consistent catalogue engagement and artists riding recent album momentum. The 25% implied probability reflects meaningful uncertainty about which artist will hold that specific position in sixteen months' time.
Historical precedent suggests major releases drive substantial listener gains. In 2024, artists like Drake and Ariana Grande demonstrated how new album cycles can reshape monthly listener rankings within weeks. The resolution depends partly on which major acts release material in the months preceding May 2026 and whether those releases sustain engagement through the settlement window. Touring schedules, playlist placements, and viral moments on social platforms also influence streaming behaviour, though these remain difficult to predict systematically.
Traders monitoring this market should track announced release schedules from top-tier artists, particularly those currently positioned around the #2–#5 range. Industry announcements regarding tour dates or festival appearances can signal momentum shifts. The current order book pricing reflects consensus that the incumbent #2 artist faces genuine competition from multiple challengers, though no single alternative has emerged as a clear favourite. Spotify's quarterly listener data, publicly available through artist profiles, provides the most reliable leading indicator for positioning ahead of the May settlement date.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "#2 Spotify artist in May?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for music contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $52 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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