Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Avengers: Doomsday is a Marvel film scheduled to release on December, 18, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor playing the listed character appears in Avengers: Doomsday. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve upon announcement of casting, regardless of if the film is delayed, cancelled, or otherwise fails to be released. If no casting is announced, this market will resolve upon footage of the domestic theatrical cut of the film. If multiple people are cast for the same role, the listed individual being among the cast list for the relevant character will be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hugh Jackman as Wolverine | 92% YES | 8% NO |
| Mark Ruffalo as Hulk | 55% YES | 46% NO |
| Tom Holland as Spider-Man | 56% YES | 45% NO |
| Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine | 33% YES | 67% NO |
| Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man | 21% YES | 79% NO |
| Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool | 86% YES | 14% NO |
| Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau | 75% YES | 26% NO |
| Xochitl Gomez as America Chavez | 51% YES | 50% NO |
Marvel Studios is preparing Avengers: Doomsday for theatrical release on 18 December 2026, with casting announcements expected in the months preceding production. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 91% implied probability that a specified character will appear in the film, suggesting strong market confidence in the casting materialising as anticipated.
Historical precedent from recent Marvel ensemble films provides a useful benchmark. The Avengers: Endgame cast list was largely confirmed through official announcements and trailer releases in the eighteen months before its April 2019 premiere, whilst Spider-Man: No Way Home's casting generated significant market volatility as Sony and Marvel Studios staggered reveals across 2020 and 2021. These cases demonstrate that major character confirmations typically arrive well ahead of release, though surprise inclusions and last-minute casting changes remain possible. The 91% probability reflects confidence that standard Marvel announcement practices will occur rather than certainty about the final cut.
Traders should monitor Marvel Studios' official casting announcements, which typically arrive via press releases and social media, as well as entertainment trade publications including Deadline and Variety. Production schedules and any delays to the December 2026 release date would affect the timeline for casting confirmation. The resolution mechanism specifies that the market settles upon casting announcement rather than theatrical release, meaning traders need not wait until December 2026 for clarity. Any significant production delays or franchise restructuring decisions from Marvel's parent company Disney could alter casting plans materially.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$38K in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for movies contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $169 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 18 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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