Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to how much "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (May 29 - May 31) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <23m | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| 27-31m | 21% YES | 80% NO |
| >35m | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| 23-27m | 16% YES | 85% NO |
| 31-35m | 28% YES | 72% NO |
The Backrooms film is scheduled for theatrical release on 29 May 2026, with opening weekend box office performance (29–31 May) determining settlement. The current order book on Polymarket reflects an 11% implied probability, suggesting traders assess a relatively low likelihood of the film reaching the upper revenue brackets specified in the market's resolution criteria. This probability emerges from the aggregated positions of market participants pricing in expectations around the film's commercial performance across its first three days in cinemas.
Comparable horror and genre releases offer context for interpreting current pricing. Recent found-footage and internet-folklore adaptations have demonstrated volatile opening weekend trajectories; A Quiet Place Day One opened to $28.2 million domestically in June 2024, whilst Insidious: The Red Door grossed $36.2 million in its opening weekend in July 2023. The Backrooms property originates from creepypasta internet culture with established online fandom, though theatrical adaptations of niche digital properties have shown mixed commercial results. The 11% probability suggests traders are positioning for a below-average opening relative to comparable horror releases.
Key catalysts include the film's marketing spend and audience reception metrics in the weeks preceding release. Trailer performance, social media engagement, and early critical reception will inform trader positioning as May approaches. Competition from other May releases and broader summer slate announcements may also influence perceptions of the film's market opportunity. The Numbers' reporting methodology—requiring final figures rather than studio estimates—means settlement occurs after opening weekend data stabilises, typically by early June.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.the-numbers.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading ""Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$223 in lifetime turnover and $9K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for movies contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $210 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.the-numbers.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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