Trade: MLB: Runs Leader
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the player who scores the most runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher on base percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $237K
- Total Volume
- $1K
- 24h Volume
- $21
- Open Interest
- $278
Market outcomes
| Shohei Ohtani | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| Juan Soto | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| Kyle Schwarber | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Cal Raleigh | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| George Springer | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| José Ramírez | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Mookie Betts | 2% YES | 98% NO |
Market context
The 2026 MLB regular season will determine which player scores the most runs across all 30 teams. The settlement window closes on 28 September 2026, capturing the full 162-game schedule. Polymarket's order book is currently pricing the YES side at 37 per cent implied probability, reflecting uncertainty around which elite offensive player will lead the league in runs scored during what remains an unpredictable season from a talent distribution perspective.
Historically, runs leaders have typically emerged from teams with strong offensive lineups and high-velocity scoring environments. Over the past decade, players like Ronald Acuña Jr., Mookie Betts, and Kyle Schwarber have led the league with run totals ranging from 130 to 141 runs per season. The 37 per cent probability suggests the market views the favourite as a moderately strong candidate rather than a consensus lock, consistent with the competitive nature of run-scoring leadership where multiple players frequently cluster within 5–10 runs of the leader.
Traders should monitor roster construction announcements and free agency developments through winter 2025, as team composition directly influences individual run-scoring opportunities. Spring training performance in March 2026 will provide early indicators of offensive form and lineup stability. Mid-season trades in July 2026 could shift run-scoring trajectories, particularly if contenders acquire offensive reinforcements. Injury updates throughout the season will be critical, as extended absences from key players can dramatically alter cumulative run totals by season's end.
Wikipedia Context
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MLB Sunday LeadoffMLB Sunday Leadoff is the branding used for broadcasts of Major League Baseball (MLB) games that primarily are held on Sunday afternoon. In 2026, NBC Sports produces these broadcasts for air on Peacock, NBCSN, and NBC. NBC Sports previously produced games for Peacock from 2022 to 2023, with one game each season simulcast on NBC. In 2024 and 2025, MLB Sunday
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MLB TuesdayMLB Tuesday is an American television presentation of Major League Baseball (MLB) games produced by TNT Sports primarily for TBS. The broadcasts debuted on April 12, 2022, and features a 30-minute studio show before and after each game.
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Rule 5 draftThe Rule 5 draft is a Major League Baseball (MLB) player draft that occurs each year in December, at the annual Winter Meeting of general managers. The Rule 5 draft aims to prevent teams from stockpiling too many young players on their minor league affiliate teams when other organizations would be willing to have them play in the major leagues. The Rule 5 dr
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Major League Baseball rostersA Major League Baseball roster is a list of players who are allowed, by league agreement, to play for a Major League Baseball (MLB) team. Each MLB team maintains two rosters: an active roster of players eligible to participate in an MLB game, and an expanded roster encompassing the active roster plus additional reserve players.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "MLB: Runs Leader" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$1K in lifetime turnover and $237K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for mlb contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $21 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 28 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "MLB: Runs Leader"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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