Trade: Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Guardians, scheduled for May 16 at 6:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game. This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $20K
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| NRFI | 47% YES | 54% NO |
Market context
The Cincinnati Reds travel to Cleveland for an AL Central divisional matchup on 16 May at 6:10 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 52% implied probability for a Reds victory, suggesting near-parity between the two teams as perceived by active traders. This probability formation reflects real-time assessment of roster strength, recent form, and pitching matchups available at settlement.
Historically, the Reds and Guardians have maintained competitive balance in recent seasons, with neither club establishing pronounced dominance in head-to-head play. The 52% probability sits close to the 50% baseline, indicating traders view this as a genuine toss-up rather than a clear favourite scenario. Context matters: the Guardians won the AL Central in 2023 and remain a playoff-calibre organisation, whilst the Reds have invested significantly in their roster and represent a rising competitive force in the division.
Traders should monitor starting pitcher assignments and any late roster changes announced in the days preceding the fixture. Weather conditions at Cleveland's Progressive Field—particularly wind direction and temperature—can materially affect play. Recent injury reports or bullpen availability shifts could alter the calculus, as could any last-minute lineup adjustments. The settlement window extends to 23 May at 22:10 UTC, providing sufficient time for postponements or rescheduling should weather intervene.
Wikipedia Context
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Cincinnati RedsThe Cincinnati Reds are an American professional baseball team based in Cincinnati. The Reds compete in Major League Baseball (MLB) as a member club of the National League (NL) Central Division. They were a charter member of the American Association in 1881 before joining the NL in 1890.
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Cincinnati Reds minor league players
Below are the rosters of the minor league affiliates of the Cincinnati Reds and short biographies on some of the top prospects in the organization:
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Cincinnati Reds all-time roster
The following is a list of players, both past and current, who appeared at least in one game for the Cincinnati Reds National League franchise, also known previously as the Cincinnati Red Stockings (1882–1889) and Cincinnati Redlegs (1953–1958). Players in Bold are members of the National Baseball Hall of Fame.
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Cincinnati Reds award winners and league leaders
This article is a list of baseball players who are Cincinnati Reds players that are winners of Major League Baseball awards and recognitions, Reds awards and recognitions, and/or are league leaders in various statistical areas.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $20K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for mlb contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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