Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| André Carson | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| George Hornedo | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Candidate A | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Candidate C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Candidate E | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Candidate G | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Candidate I | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Candidate K | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Indiana's 7th congressional district will hold a Democratic primary on 5 May 2026 to select the party's nominee for the U.S. House seat. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for a Democratic nominee being selected, indicating traders assess near-certainty that the primary will produce a candidate by the November 2026 resolution deadline. This probability formation suggests confidence in standard party machinery functioning and candidate recruitment proceeding as expected in the district.
Historical precedent across U.S. House Democratic primaries shows that contested races in non-competitive districts typically see multiple candidates emerge, whilst safer seats often attract fewer challengers. Indiana's 7th, currently represented by Republican André Carson, has been a Republican-held seat since 2008, which may influence the field size and candidate quality. The 100% probability reflects the baseline expectation that Democrats will field someone rather than assess the likelihood of any particular candidate winning—a distinction critical for traders evaluating whether current pricing reflects genuine certainty or merely the near-universal occurrence of primary nomination.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements throughout 2025 and early 2026, as the field composition will clarify competitive dynamics. The Indiana Democratic Party's endorsement process, if undertaken, could signal frontrunner status. Any unexpected withdrawals, party dysfunction, or failure to recruit viable candidates would represent tail risks to the current pricing, though such outcomes remain uncommon in major-party primary processes. The May 2026 primary date provides a defined resolution point with minimal ambiguity regarding nominee selection.
Inga is a city of Kongo Central province in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. As of 2012, it had an estimated population of 10,887.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "IN-07 Democratic Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$25K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for midterms contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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