Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces that they have acquired additional Bitcoin between the dates in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last date). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on announcements made within the market's designated time frame regardless of when the actual purchases were made. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor. For reference, MicroStrategy's reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18? | 94% YES | 6% NO |
MicroStrategy has established itself as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with a consistent pattern of regular acquisitions funded through equity offerings and debt issuances. The question centres on whether the company will announce a Bitcoin purchase during the week of 12–18 May 2026. Given Michael Saylor's stated strategy of accumulating Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset, the market's 95% implied probability reflects the historical frequency of such announcements rather than certainty of a specific weekly occurrence.
MicroStrategy announced Bitcoin purchases in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025, though not necessarily on a fixed schedule. The timing of acquisitions has typically coincided with equity raises, debt offerings, or strategic announcements. The current Polymarket order book pricing at 95% YES suggests traders view May 12–18 as a high-probability window, though this reflects general confidence in MicroStrategy's ongoing accumulation strategy rather than knowledge of a confirmed transaction. The resolution hinges on official announcements made during the specified dates, regardless of when purchases actually occurred.
Traders should monitor MicroStrategy's investor relations calendar for scheduled earnings calls, shareholder meetings, or debt offerings during this window, as these events have historically preceded Bitcoin purchase announcements. Recent patterns show the company announcing acquisitions through press releases or SEC filings. The settlement window closing on 19 May 2026 allows for announcements made through 11:59 PM ET on the 18th to count toward resolution. Any announcement delay beyond this date would result in a NO resolution, making timing precision critical for settlement purposes.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.strategy.com/purchases. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for microstrategy contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 94%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.strategy.com/purchases. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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