Trade: Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $1K
- Total Volume
- $19K
- 24h Volume
- $81
- Open Interest
- $458
Market outcomes
| $7.000+ | 76% YES | 24% NO |
| $8.000+ | 55% YES | 46% NO |
| $10.000+ | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| $9.000+ | 38% YES | 63% NO |
Market context
Ground beef prices in the United States will need to reach or exceed a specified threshold at some point during 2026 for this market to resolve affirmatively. The St. Louis Fed publishes monthly average prices sourced from the Bureau of Labour Statistics' Consumer Price Index, providing the official settlement data. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 76% implied probability, suggesting traders assess a substantial likelihood of the threshold being breached within the calendar year.
Historical context matters considerably here. Ground beef prices have exhibited pronounced volatility over the past decade, driven by cattle herd cycles, feed costs, and export demand dynamics. The 2021–2022 period saw significant price escalation as supply constraints tightened; prices subsequently moderated but remained elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels. Understanding where the threshold sits relative to recent trading ranges—whether it represents a modest extension of current levels or a material spike—shapes the probability's credibility. A threshold near current spot prices would naturally command higher odds than one requiring substantial appreciation.
Traders should monitor USDA cattle inventory reports, which typically release quarterly, and track feed grain prices (particularly corn) as leading indicators for production costs. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory through 2026 will influence broader inflation dynamics and consumer demand. Any significant disruption to cattle supplies—disease outbreaks, drought conditions affecting grazing regions, or shifts in export markets—could accelerate price movements. The exact settlement threshold and its proximity to recent historical ranges will ultimately determine whether the current 76% probability reflects genuine conviction or pricing uncertainty around the specific target level.
Wikipedia Context
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Ground beefGround beef, hamburger meat, minced beef or beef mince is beef that has been finely chopped with a knife or meat grinder, i.e., mincer or mincing machine (Commonwealth). It is used in many recipes including hamburgers, bolognese sauce, meatloaf, meatballs, kofta, and burritos.
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Ground-effect vehicleA ground-effect vehicle (GEV), also called a wing-in-ground-effect, ground-effect craft/machine (GEM), wingship, flarecraft, surface effect vehicle or ekranoplan, is a vehicle that makes use of the ground effect, the aerodynamic interaction between a moving wing and the stationary surface below. Typically, it glides over a level surface. Some models can oper
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Ground beetleGround beetles are a large, cosmopolitan family of beetles, the Carabidae, with more than 40,000 species worldwide, around 2,000 of which are found in North America and 2,700 in Europe. As of 2015, it is one of the 10 most species-rich animal families. They belong to the suborder Adephaga. Members of the family are primarily carnivorous, but some members are
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Ground effect (aerodynamics)
In aircraft, the ground effect is the reduced aerodynamic drag that an aircraft's wings generate when they are close to a surface.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$19K in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for macro indicators contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $81 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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