Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report. The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <1.0% | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 1.5–1.9% | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| 2.5–2.9% | 22% YES | 78% NO |
| 3.5–3.9% | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| 1.0–1.4% | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| 2.0–2.4% | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| 3.0–3.4% | — | |
| 4.5%+ | 42% YES | 58% NO |
The market concerns the twelve-month change in the Consumer Price Index ending December 2026, as measured by the Office for National Statistics. This will be reported in the ONS's monthly inflation bulletin released in January 2027. The current order book on Polymarket implies just a 1% probability of YES resolution, suggesting traders expect inflation to remain outside whatever threshold defines affirmation for this contract.
U.K. inflation peaked at 11.1% in October 2022 before declining steadily through 2023 and into 2024. By autumn 2024, the annual rate had settled in the 2–2.5% range, near the Bank of England's 2% target. Historical precedent suggests that once inflation stabilises around target after a disinflationary cycle, it tends to remain anchored unless significant demand or supply shocks materialise. The 1% probability reflects trader confidence that 2026 will not see a material departure from this stabilised regime.
Key catalysts include the Bank of England's monetary policy decisions through 2025 and early 2026, which will influence wage growth and demand-side pressures. Energy price movements, particularly wholesale gas and oil, remain material given their weight in the CPI basket. Fiscal policy announcements—particularly any changes to taxation or public spending—could shift inflation expectations. The ONS will release monthly CPI data throughout 2025, allowing traders to update their 2026 forecasts incrementally before the December 2026 settlement figure crystallises.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "U.K. Annual Inflation 2026" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for macro indicators contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $6 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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