Trade: TJX Q1 comp sales growth?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to TJX's announced comp sales growth for the first fiscal quarter of 2027, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $85
- Total Volume
- —
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- —
Market outcomes
| <3% | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| 3%–4% | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| 4%–5% | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| 5%–6% | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| 6%+ | 46% YES | 55% NO |
Market context
TJX Companies will report first-quarter fiscal 2027 comparable sales growth in May 2026, with the market currently pricing a 46% probability of positive comp sales. This metric measures sales growth at stores open for at least a year, excluding new locations and closures, and serves as a key indicator of underlying retail health for the off-price apparel retailer.
TJX's historical comp sales performance provides context for interpreting current pricing. The company reported positive comps in Q1 fiscal 2026 and has maintained relatively consistent low-to-mid single-digit growth through recent quarters, though retail conditions have proven volatile. Comparable periods from prior years show the retailer typically achieves positive comps during spring quarters, though macroeconomic headwinds and consumer spending patterns create variability. The 46% implied probability reflects meaningful uncertainty rather than a baseline expectation of growth, suggesting the market is pricing in material risks to achieving positive comps.
Traders should monitor TJX's quarterly earnings announcements leading into the settlement window, particularly Q4 fiscal 2026 results expected in late February or early March 2026, which will provide the most recent trading trends and management guidance. Consumer spending data, employment reports, and retail sector performance through early 2026 will influence expectations. Any commentary from TJX management regarding promotional intensity, inventory levels, or customer traffic trends will be material to reassessing the probability. The settlement window closes 20 May 2026, allowing roughly two months after typical earnings release dates for the market to price in confirmed results.
Wikipedia Context
-
THX 1138THX 1138 is a 1971 American social science fiction film co-written and directed by George Lucas in his feature directorial debut. Produced by Francis Ford Coppola and co-written by Walter Murch, the film stars Robert Duvall and Donald Pleasence, with Don Pedro Colley, Maggie McOmie, and Ian Wolfe in supporting roles. The film is set in a dystopian future in
-
TJ-IITJ-II is a flexible Heliac installed at Spain's National Fusion Laboratory.
-
TJ Quinn
TJ Quinn is an American professional football linebacker for the Green Bay Packers of the National Football League (NFL). He played college football for the Louisville Cardinals and he was signed as an undrafted free agent by the Packers in 2026.
-
TX-10,000 (ship)TX-10,000 is a heavy-lift twin-gantry catamaran consisting of two truss space frames atop two barges. The design was derived from Versabar's earlier VB-4000, which was developed to clear debris from toppled oil drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. Instead of sending divers to section the wreckage into pieces, the heavy-lift capability facilitates salvag
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "TJX Q1 comp sales growth?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $85 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for kpis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "TJX Q1 comp sales growth?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: