Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Braden Eric Peters (known as Clavicular) between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Clavicular charged again by June 30? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The market concerns whether Braden Eric Peters, known online as Clavicular, will face formal criminal charges from any US federal or state jurisdiction by 30 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability of "Yes," indicating traders have priced in near-certainty that charges will materialise within the settlement window. This extreme probability typically emerges when market participants possess information suggesting charges are imminent or already in advanced prosecutorial stages, though the specific allegations or jurisdiction remain unconfirmed in public reporting.
Internet figures facing federal or state charges typically encounter prosecution timelines ranging from months to years following initial investigation. Cases involving online conduct—whether related to fraud, harassment, or other digital-native offences—often move through grand jury processes and prosecutorial review before formal indictment. The 18-month window to 30 June 2026 represents a compressed timeframe for charges to materialise, suggesting either active investigation with documented progress or prior legal proceedings already underway.
Traders monitoring this market should track announcements from US Department of Justice press releases, FBI field office statements, and state attorney general offices for any formal charging documents or indictment notices naming Peters. Court docket systems in federal districts and relevant state courts would provide definitive settlement evidence. The absence of public reporting regarding active investigation or charges against Peters, contrasted with the 100% implied probability, suggests either significant information asymmetry amongst traders or conviction based on non-public intelligence regarding prosecutorial intent.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Clavicular charged again by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$60K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for internet contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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