Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics fails to release any monthly report on the Consumer Price Index by 11:59PM ET on the scheduled release date between December 1, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If an announcement is made by the White House or the BLS that the monthly CPI release will be delayed or cancelled altogether, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be information from the BLS or a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| BLS delays another CPI release before 2027? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The Consumer Price Index is released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on a pre-announced schedule, typically around the 10th or 12th of each month. This market examines whether the BLS will miss a scheduled release date between December 2025 and December 2026. The 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects an assessment that at least one delay is virtually certain within this 13-month window, suggesting traders view disruptions to the CPI schedule as highly probable.
Historical precedent provides context for interpreting this extreme confidence. The BLS has delayed CPI releases during significant operational disruptions: most notably in January 2019 during the federal government shutdown, when the release was postponed by one week. Seasonal government closures, cybersecurity incidents, and data processing failures have occasionally caused delays to economic releases. However, complete cancellations are exceptionally rare, and the BLS typically maintains contingency protocols to minimise disruption to this critical inflation indicator.
Traders should monitor announcements regarding federal government operations, particularly any shutdown threats or extended closures that would affect BLS staffing. The schedule of CPI release dates through December 2026 is already published by the BLS, making the specific windows observable. Additionally, any White House or BLS statements about operational challenges, cybersecurity concerns, or methodological changes could trigger immediate resolution. The current pricing suggests market participants view even minor delays as probable given the extended timeframe and operational vulnerabilities inherent to large government statistical agencies.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "BLS delays another CPI release before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$40K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for inflation contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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