Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Kathy Dolter | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Guy Morgan | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Clint Twedt-Ball | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Person A | — | |
| Person C | — | |
| Person E | — | |
| Person G | — | |
| Person I | — | |
Iowa's 2nd congressional district will hold a Democratic primary on 2 June 2026 to select the party's nominee for the U.S. House seat currently held by Republican Ashley Hinson. The current order book on Polymarket prices a YES resolution at 3%, reflecting substantial uncertainty about whether a Democratic nominee will be formally announced by the 3 November 2026 deadline. This low probability suggests traders are pricing in either a contested primary process, late candidate emergence, or the possibility that the Democratic Party fails to formally designate a nominee within the settlement window.
Historical precedent offers limited direct comparison, as formal nominee announcements typically occur well before November in election cycles. However, Iowa's 2nd district has been competitive in recent cycles—Hinson won her 2022 re-election with 51% of the vote—suggesting the Democratic Party will likely mount a serious nomination effort. The district's political composition and recent turnover patterns indicate sufficient party infrastructure to produce a nominee, though internal disagreements or recruitment difficulties could delay formal announcement.
Traders should monitor Democratic Party announcements regarding candidate recruitment and primary scheduling throughout 2025 and early 2026. The Iowa Democratic Party's official communications and any statements from democrats.org regarding IA-02 will be critical catalysts. Additionally, any major shifts in national Democratic strategy or resource allocation toward competitive House seats could influence the timeline and likelihood of a formal nomination announcement before the November deadline.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "IA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$9K in lifetime turnover and $18K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for house primary contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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