Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Travis Terrell | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Person D | — | |
| Person J | — | |
| Person P | — | |
| Person Q | — | |
| Person V | — | |
| Person W | — | |
| Christina Bohannan | 94% YES | 6% NO |
Iowa's 1st congressional district will hold a Democratic primary on 2 June 2026 to select the party's nominee for the U.S. House seat currently held by Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks. The 4% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial uncertainty about whether a credible Democratic challenger will emerge and secure the nomination in this historically competitive district. The settlement window closes at the primary date, with any nominee replacement thereafter not affecting resolution.
Iowa-01 has shifted considerably in recent cycles. The district voted for Donald Trump by 8 points in 2020 yet elected Miller-Meeks by just 6 votes in 2022, suggesting volatile electorate dynamics. In 2024, Democrat Christina Bohannan lost to Miller-Meeks by approximately 3 points despite significant national Democratic investment. These narrow margins indicate the seat remains competitive, though the 4% probability suggests traders currently see limited likelihood of a Democratic primary contest materialising or expect candidate recruitment challenges typical of midterm cycles two years out.
Key catalysts include formal candidate announcements, which typically accelerate in late 2025 and early 2026, and Iowa Democratic Party guidance on primary procedures. The Iowa caucuses' role in presidential politics occasionally affects state-level Democratic infrastructure and donor attention. Traders should monitor whether national Democratic committees signal investment in the district and whether Bohannan or other 2024 candidates commit to another run. The settlement source of official Democratic sources and democrats.org will determine final nominee recognition.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "IA-01 Democratic Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$20K in lifetime turnover and $23K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for house primary contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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